Added on 2020-05-17 13:06:17 from Miroslav Trifonov
The goal in front of every player is to minimize losses and ensure consistent winnings. If you are a beginner in the World of betting, you should know that there will be failures quite often. No technique has been developed to prevent losses, so you need to accept them and learn from them.
Is failure the key to success?
Both in nature and in betting, there is a balance that players cannot overcome. Even if you use the most proven strategies and methods to beat bookmakers, there will be failures, and the chance of winning in the long run will remain below 100%. If we make a comparison with casino games, as they are easier to analyze, we highlight RTP (return) below 100%, usually in the range of 95-99%. This shows us that the casino has an advantage that theoretically cannot be outperformed.
We have repeatedly advised you to use betting strategies that minimize the chances of losing. In fact, this is exactly what they should do, but you can not rely entirely on their original purpose. It is necessary to constantly improve and upgrade the selected model, learning from mistakes you have made. In case you are hesitant in determining the size of the bet, in the selected markets or in the respective sport, define the breakthroughs and with small changes in the strategy turn it into a winning one.
Analyze strengths and weaknesses of the strategy
Dozens of proven strategies developed by the greatest mathematicians are hovering in the web. Applied with maximum accuracy, they have a high probability of long-term profit, but their use is not always accurate to the capabilities and knowledge of the player.
With this article we aim to show you the weaknesses of some models that lead to negative results and financial losses for players. You should not rely entirely on a particular strategy, but you should refract it through your prism to make it profitable. Of course, if you find a technique that fully meets your capabilities and interests, there is no better option to increase success.
Let's say you choose to bet on goals in football. The main factor you use when analyzing matches is based on the average performance of the teams involved. You look at the number of goals scored by both teams and analyze their performance at home and away. However, this is not the most correct approach to calculate the possible performance.
It is possible that one of the teams needs more of the victory, there are personnel problems or one of the teams comes up with a more defensive scheme of the game. These circumstances are not negligible, on the contrary, they give accuracy and complete appearance to the analysis, but they are absent from the instructions for betting on most statistical strategies. This has a negative effect on the accuracy of the model and deprives the player of more frequent winning selections.
Improving betting skills
Following the sequence of the previous paragraphs, let us illustrate the above with an actual example. Many football fans trust the modern xG goal model. It collects data on the performance of the teams, how they perform from a long distance, what is the success of free kicks, which is important for the correct prediction.
But some important indicators remain in the shadows, such as lineups, injured players, game formation and so on. The xG model will be even more accurate if these circumstances are taken into account. The more one understands a strategy and clears its mistakes, the safer and more profitable it will become.
There will always be failures, whether you bet on your own or base your bets on proven strategies. It is important to get the most out of every wrong move and upgrade your abilities. Probably for many players betting is just for fun, but we believe that none of us wants to fall into the trap of bookmakers. Therefore, we recommend that you be careful, learn from mistakes and do not repeat them. When one clears the inaccuracies down to the smallest detail, success comes naturally.